Analysis: since the end of 2025, Polymarket users have rarely bet large sums on US strikes the next day; before the Iran strikes, 150+ accounts placed such bets (Amy Fan/New York Times)

Amy Fan / New York Times:
Analysis: since the end of 2025, Polymarket users have rarely bet large sums on US strikes the next day; before the Iran strikes, 150+ accounts placed such bets  —  Polymarket users placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 predicting an imminent American strike, raising concerns about insider trading.